This page tries to analyse the response to IPO and factors in the run up to listing.
Mahanagar gas to debut on stock exchanges on 1/07/16 (Friday). Making a guess on the expected listing price is a hazardous job. The price entirely depends on appetite of buyers in the initial day as selling pressures are large. From fundamentals MGL deserves a conservative price of Rs. 500/- at the time of issue. Adding 5-6% for subsequent upswing in IGL and good sentiment in market Rs. 525 plus minus Rs. 15 seems reachable. Rs. 550/- levels also cannot be rules out in due course. The stock is fundamentally strong and may show slow and steady appreciation over 2-3 year time frame.
Detailed analysis of Mahanagar gas IPO was earlier given at https://ipoandmore.com/2016/06/14/mahanagar-gas-reasonably-priced-good-prospects
Price Movement of IGL in last one month.
The scrip has gained 8-9% in last one month and about 5-6% after firm date for MGL IPO. FII holding in IGL stands were 20.81 indicating good interest in this sector.
Indraprastha Gas Ltd. (IGL) is the closest and only true peer for Mahanagar Gas Ltd.(MGL)
| Comparative Ratios : Mahanagar Gas vs Indraprastha Gas | |||
| IGL | MGL (Issue price Rs. 421) | MGL (Random price Rs. 550) | |
| Sales volume in mmscd | 2.3 | 4.1 | |
| EBIDTA per SCM | 23.4 | 25.2 | |
| Sales fy16(cr) | 3673 | 2079 | 2079 |
| Equity (cr.) | 140 | 89.3 | 89.3 |
| Net Profit Margin (%) | 12.15 | 14.5 | 14.5 |
| Price (Rs.) | 627.55 | 430 | 550 |
| Diluted EPS | 29.7 | 31.36 | 31.36 |
| P/E | 21.1 | 13.7 | 17.5 |
| Market cap(cr) | 8786 | 3840 | 4912 |
| Dividend | Rs. 6 | Rs. 17.5 in 2015 | |
MGL is about 55-60% of the size of IGL . This is due to regulations for use of CNG In Delhi via vis no such thing in Mumbai. However MGL has slightly better operational performance & dividend yield.
MGL IPO subscription
Day 3: Overall 65 x, QIB 73 x, HNI 192 x, retail 9 x
Day 2: Overall 3.92 x, QIB 6.44 x , HNI 2.38 x, retail 3.22 x
Day 1: 1.08 x, QIB 1.59 x, HNI .07 x, retail .71x
Anchor Investors ( 20th June 1016) : Mahanagar Gas raised Rs 309 crore from about two dozen anchor investors. It allotted 7.34 million shares at Rs 421 to investors which included DB International, Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch.
Disclaimer: Iam not a analyst and above article is only for academic understanding of stock price movements. Please make your own decisions.
nice post